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Corona Virus - Facts, Data, & Empowerment

Original Publication Date: 5/2/2020


#CoronaVirus – I know we are all probably a little tired of hearing and being affected by the Corona virus. I have been trying to provide information and facts to help you all make informed decisions and hopefully alleviate your worries during this crazy time. This post will be a little bit long. I wanted to try to provide you the most recent antibody testing data, the extrapolation of that sample data to the population and the US population. I also wanted to try to provide facts that will hopefully clear up some of the misinformation flying around out there. I am going to do my best with providing sources with each of my points so that you can look into the information yourself and not just accept what I am saying and the conclusions I have drawn. So let’s get started.

Antibody Test Data and what it means to the spread and death rate of Corona


Below is a table I put together to show the current antibody test results. I then extrapolated the sample data to revise the test region infection case volume, state infection case volume, and eventually the US population case volume. I also took the extrapolated data to calculate the revised death rates. The US calculations are based on the average from all antibody tests results.


Table 1

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Sources for the above antibody testing results are as follows:

Hospitalizations and ICU data


Another important piece of the puzzle is who is most vulnerable to this disease, requiring hospitalization, progressing to ICU status, and possibly passing away from this disease. By understanding this it allows you to make better decisions on who we should consider vulnerable population groups and protecting them. First, let us look at the hospitalization data from the CDC

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It becomes quite clear just from this graphic that those 65 or older are the greatest risk group progressing to hospitalization. This is not unordinary as most infectious disease tends to hit the individuals that have the weaker immune systems, like the elderly. The cumulative overall hospitalization rate from the CDC is 40.4 per 100,000 with those being age 50 and above dominating the hospitalizations (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html).


Based on Table 1 data above I took the total hospitalizations divided by the extrapolated infections based on antibody test data to come up with a hospitalization rate (0.45%). Based on that hospitalization rate I projected that if every person in the US population was infected what the total number of hospitalizations would be based on the calculated hospitalization rate (~1.5M). Finally, based on 5% of the cases progressing to ICU status (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-04-09/boris-johnson-moved-out-of-icu-but-still-in-hospital-with-covid-19) you can see the total need for ICU is far lower than originally hypothesized. This is important as we need to understand not only the infection potential, but also those that may require hospitalization and ICU. This allows us to plan additional capacity if needed. My Conclusions based on Antibody Test Data Results


Based on the results of the antibody studies across the country, it appears that on average there are 21.7 times more people that have been infected with the virus than what has been reported. What does that tell us?

  1. The virus spread is far greater than previously reported

  2. The possibility of the virus entering the US prior to February is likely

  3. Many people that were infected, recovered, and did not realize they had the Corona infection

  4. The lethality or death rate of the infection is far lower than what is being reported

  5. The hospitalization rate is lower than originally projected with the most vulnerable population requiring hospitalization and ICU being age 50 and above with comorbid diseases, the immunocompromised, and age 65 and above having the highest risk.

We know the original Corona models that projected number of hospitalizations and deaths were very inaccurate. I do not blame anyone for that as there were a lot of unknowns. These inaccurate models led to the reactions from our local, state, and federal government leaders to take unprecedented steps to avoid the massive death projections. Now that we have real data it is definitely a far better outlook than originally projected.

Can you be re-infected if you already had Covid-19?

One of the most frustrating items I have seen floating around the internet was the argument that antibodies do not protect you from Corona. Some of this was based a few reports from South Korea and China that people that had Corona, recovered, and then tested positive for the virus again. When I read that I was like something is going on as the possibility of not being protected by antibody build up and memory lymphocytes is rare. Even if the virus hides in the body, similar to Varicella (Chicken Pox Virus), it still cannot manifest itself again without the body’s immune system being very low. As it turned out, the Covid patients were not being re-infected as originally thought. It was a test misreading. The test picked up the degraded viral RNA again that was still present in the body (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-reinfections-were-false-positives.html). So the patient would test positive for Corona virus, but not be infected or have the ability to disseminate the virus.


This does lead to the question of how long will the immunity last? Does the body produce lifetime memory and protection, or does it have a time limit to when it can mount a defense against Corona again. More study needs to be completed on that, but we do know that at least you have short term immunity to the virus. How?

  1. Plasma infusion of antibodies have shown to help those severely ill recover from the virus (Study shows good results with plasma treatment for COVID-19 - The Hindu)

  2. Monkey studies show that previously infected monkeys do not get re-infected by corona after recovery (Macaque monkeys can't become reinfected with COVID-19, small study suggests. | Live Science). This demonstrates the antibodies are produced and provide protection of the host.


Covid-19 Treatment


Nothing has been more politicized than the treatment of this virus. It has boggled my mind how it seems some people are wishing there was no treatment options so they can use every injury/death as a political club to bash the current administration. The spreading of false information has become rampant. I can only surmise to cause fear and panic. Based on current studies and anecdotal information the current landscape is as follows in terms of treatment.


Remdesivir – a novel antiviral from Gilead has shown to reduce the time to recovery by 31%. This is great news in that if we have the ability to reduce viral replication and load it give the immune system time to clear out the pathogen. In addition, it reduces the risk of the cytokine storm which is potentially the greatest threat to survival

Plasma Infusion of Antibodies – the infusion of antibodies from a recovered Covid patient to a person currently battling the virus. This provides passive immunity and has shown to be a viable treatment option

Hydroxychloroquine – an old drug that has been used to treat malaria, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis has show promise in treating Covid patients. In particular, if used early, prior to severe illness, it appears the ability of this drug to inhibit the cytokine storm prevents the patient from progressing into a severe state. Current, controlled studies are taking place, but some examples of its positive effects are noted here

Leronlimab – a new antiviral agent originally shown to dramatically impact HIV has shown significant results with treating Corona

Ivermectin - an anti-parasitic drug used for decades has show previous efficacy against viral infections. Currently, it has been studied for use with Corona virus and again has shown positive results in studies to decrease mortality and morbidity.

Molnupiravir - a new oral antiviral therapy from Merck has show great promise in early studies.

Vaccines - there are multiple vaccines in development or being tested today. Ultimately, these preventatives will lead to herd immunity and you will see a steep drop in case counts, hospitalizations and deaths. Again, I have seen the politicization of this course of therapy to gain political advantage. Anything to disparage the Trump administration. It will only spread fear and discourage individuals from choosing to be vaccinated.


There are multiple other treatments currently being studied, but as you can see there are options for people. It saddened my heart to see the Democrat politicians as well as multiple leftist scientists bash the Trump administration and squash therapeutics for political gain. They have 100,000's of deaths on their hands. Overall Conclusions


Based on real data we can see that initial projections were significantly overstated which led to widespread fear and overreaction to the Corona virus. I do understand that the leaders had to make some very difficult decisions based on the best information they had at the time. Now that it is becoming clear this disease has the most significant threat to those 65 or older, immunocompromised, and those over age 50 with comorbid disease we can now move forward with protecting those groups while opening up the country. In addition, we have at multiple available treatment options that have shown promise to prevent the disease from progressing to a life threatening status. When you combine this with the results of antibody test data, you see the virus has infected more people without them even knowing they had the infection. This is good news in that it reinforces the virus is not as deadly as initially projected, and many people are able to fight off the infection and build up antibodies. These antibodies can be utilized to help those in the high risk groups to fight the infection and save lives. Yes we still need to proceed with caution and maintain good hygiene and be responsible about trying to hinder the spread of the disease, but as we have learned more, as more people fight off this disease the less chance it will have to spread to the most vulnerable population. In the end, we will look back at this virus as one that taught us many things about pandemic readiness at the local and state level. How model data can be so inaccurate which effects millions of lives economically. How this nation was able to rapidly mobilize and move the obstacles out of the way to find treatments and more. If we use this as a learning lesson, apply the knowledge to be ready for the next unknown, then we will have not only been victorious, but a memorial to those that lost the fight against this virus. So do not live in fear and live your life each day to make it count.

Beach Bum Philosopher


Note: As I moved this article from my old blog site to the new, I incorporated the original publication date. I also took the liberty of adding a couple other treatment options so as to provide additional information since the original posting.

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